XAU/USD Update: Initial Correction Validated; Targeting the Secondary Expansion Path

The M15 tape confirmed our thesis as the price effectively hunted liquidity below the immediate swing lows, tapping into the $5,045 – $5,055 demand cluster. This maneuver successfully neutralized over-leveraged long positions, clearing the order book for the next directional impulse. The rejection from these lower levels suggests that institutional interest remains anchored in this value area.

The “Green Path”: Looking for the $5,100 Expansion

With the first movement confirmed, the technical roadmap now leads to the secondary phase. As visualized in our updated chart, the Green Projection represents a trend-continuation model. Following the current base-building process, we anticipate an impulsive move targeting the overhead supply between $5,085 and $5,100.

• Structural Trigger: A decisive break and hold above the $5,065 pivot (EMA confluence) will serve as the primary confirmation for the secondary leg.
• Volume Profile: Expect a spike in buying delta as the price approaches the mid-range consolidation zone. This move is designed to reclaim the lost territory from the morning session.

Tactical Outlook & Levels

Risk management remains paramount as the price consolidates. While the bias is skewed toward the Green Path, a failure to maintain the newly established base at $5,050 would delay the expansion. However, the current “higher-low” formation on the micro-scale supports the bullish continuation narrative.