Market Correction Stabilizes: Is Gold Ready for a New Impulsive Wave?
After the extreme volatility and parabolic moves witnessed at the start of the month, the gold market (XAU/USD) has entered a crucial phase of stabilization. The recent sharp correction has brought the price back to institutional value zones, where early signs of accumulation are starting to emerge on the lower timeframes. As we open the March 4 session, the focus shifts from the previous sell-off to a potential recovery rally.
Technical Floor and the Fibonacci Response
The 5-minute chart (08:58 UTC+2) reveals a textbook reaction to a deep retracement. After hitting a local bottom, XAU/USD has established a solid support base. The price is currently trading near $5,157.235, successfully maintaining its position above the critical structural levels identified in our long-term roadmap.
- Primary Support Zone: The price has shown remarkable resilience at the $5,104.738 (0.786 Fib) and $5,080.812 (1.0 Fib) levels. This area has acted as a “hard floor,” preventing further downside momentum and attracting buyers.
- Immediate Accumulation: Currently, the metal is oscillating between the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $5,136.714 and the 0.618 “Golden Pocket” at $5,123.522. Holding above these levels is essential for maintaining the bullish reversal thesis.
- The $5,172 Pivot: A minor resistance zone is currently visible at $5,172.314. A sustained break above this intraday ceiling will confirm that the correction is over and a new upward trend is beginning.
Projected Recovery Targets
With the support base now firmly established, the technical geometry points toward a multi-stage recovery. The first major objective for the bulls is the psychological resistance at $5,192.617 (0 Fib). If the momentum remains strong and volume increases during the London and New York overlaps, we can expect a further push toward the -0.28 extension at $5,223.922.
The RSI and other momentum oscillators are beginning to curl upward from oversold territory, providing the necessary technical “fuel” for this move. The structure currently looks like a “V-shaped” recovery attempt, supported by an ascending trend line that is slowly taking shape.
Strategic Outlook
While the long-term bullish case for gold remains intact due to geopolitical factors, the immediate focus is on this tactical recovery. Traders should watch for a “higher high” formation on the 15-minute chart to confirm the shift in market sentiment. As long as the price stays above the $5,130 mark, the path of least resistance appears to be toward the upside.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading gold involves significant risk, especially after large price swings.
Written by T. S. Gospodinov
T. S. Gospodinov is an Independent gold market analyst focused on liquidity structures and macro-driven price cycles.
