Gold trades cautiously bullish at $4,136 — buyers are defending the $4,134 floor after an Asian-session slide, with the FOMC minutes due tonight as the next directional test. The metal gave back roughly $17 from the overnight $4,153 area but has not yet broken the structure that has held since the start of the week.
Gold Compass Daily reports that the bullish case rests on one condition: the $4,120 floor must stay intact into the U.S. close. Our weekly outlook flagged this level as the line the minutes would test, and yesterday’s session report showed gold defending it.
Key Levels
- Bias: Cautiously Bullish above $4,120
- Support: $4,134 → $4,125
- Resistance: $4,144 → $4,153 → $4,158
- Session target: $4,153 (conditional on FOMC minutes reading as balanced or dovish)
- Invalidation: Below $4,120 = the multi-day floor has failed and the next leg lower opens
Catalyst of the Day: FOMC Minutes
The FOMC meeting minutes are the single most important event for gold today because they show how much of the committee is leaning toward further easing versus holding rates higher for longer. Gold pays no yield, so every shift in rate expectations changes its opportunity cost directly. A minutes record that stresses patience on rate cuts would lift the dollar and Treasury yields and pressure gold toward $4,125. A record that shows a committee open to easing would support a rebound through $4,144. Watch the release at 21:00 UTC+3, and the first 15 minutes of price reaction afterward, as the verdict on the $4,120 floor.
Fundamental Context
The Asian session traded on thinner liquidity because of the Chinese bank holiday, which removed a source of physical demand from the market. That matters for gold because thin conditions let small dollar moves push price further than usual, and the slide from $4,153 to $4,134 fits that pattern. A drop on thin volume with no new macro driver tends to retrace once liquidity returns, which is why the $4,134 zone carries weight.
The U.S. session brings three events ahead of the minutes. Crude oil inventories are due at 17:30 with a forecast build of 1.9M barrels against 0.9M previously. A larger build would soften energy prices and ease inflation expectations, which is mildly supportive for gold through lower yield pressure. President Trump speaks at 20:00. Gold Compass Daily reports no confirmed topic, but his remarks on trade, the dollar or the Fed have moved gold in the past, so the hour before the minutes may be volatile.
The 10-year bond auction follows at 20:01, with the previous result at a 4.83 yield and a 2.7 bid-to-cover ratio. Weak demand would push yields higher and weigh on gold, while a strong bid would cap yields into the minutes. In Europe, German industrial production is due at 09:00 (forecast +0.5% after -1.1%). A rebound would lift the euro and soften the dollar, a modest tailwind for gold.
Chart Analysis
On the 15-minute chart, gold trades at $4,136.55 after printing a session low near $4,132. The intraday trend has turned lower: price slipped below the 200-period SMA at $4,157.76 around 03:30 and now sits under both the fast moving average at $4,138.38 and the mid-band at $4,144.40, so the short-term signal is bearish until those are reclaimed. The first buyers have appeared inside the green support zone around $4,134, with the lower Golden Compass band at $4,134.15 aligning with it, and the latest candle is a small bullish close from that zone. Overhead, a supply zone sits at $4,150–$4,153, matching the upper band at $4,153.77, and the 200 SMA at $4,157.76 reinforces it from above. Wider supply sits at $4,166–$4,171 and $4,180–$4,184, where yesterday’s spike to roughly $4,184 was rejected immediately. A second support zone sits near $4,125, and the sharp wick to roughly $4,103 earlier in the week shows how quickly dip-buyers stepped in below $4,120. The projected path is a bounce from $4,134 toward the $4,144 mid-band, with a break lower exposing $4,125. These readings confirm the levels provided in the input, and the bullish bias depends on the $4,134 zone holding through the minutes.
Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bull trigger: A 15-minute close above $4,144 while $4,134 holds → $4,153, with an extension to $4,158 if the minutes read as dovish.
Bear trigger: A 15-minute close below $4,134 → $4,125, then $4,120. A hawkish minutes reaction that breaks $4,120 invalidates the bullish bias and opens a deeper retracement.
Events Ahead
- Wed 09:00 — German Industrial Production m/m (+0.5%): a rebound lifts the euro and softens the dollar, mildly supportive for gold.
- Wed 17:30 — U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (+1.9M): a larger build eases inflation expectations and yield pressure.
- Wed 20:00 — President Trump Speaks: unscheduled headline risk can move the dollar and gold quickly.
- Wed 20:01 — U.S. 10-Year Bond Auction (prior 4.83 | 2.7): weak demand lifts yields and pressures gold.
- Wed 21:00 — FOMC Meeting Minutes: today’s main catalyst for rate expectations and the $4,120 floor.
- Wed 22:00 — U.S. Consumer Credit m/m (+14.5B): a secondary read on consumer demand, with limited impact unless it surprises sharply.
Buyers should keep $4,134 as the line and treat a 15-minute close above $4,144 as confirmation, since a break below $4,120 after the minutes would cancel the bullish bias.
London Session Update
Price Check
Gold trades at $4,118, below the $4,120 floor that Gold Compass Daily’s morning analysis set as the line for the cautiously bullish bias. The morning thesis has failed: the $4,134 support did not hold through the London open, and price extended to a session low near $4,110 before bouncing.
What Changed
The morning analysis projected a bounce from $4,134 toward the $4,144 mid-band, and the opposite happened. Sellers took control at the London open, pushed price through $4,134 and then through the $4,125 support zone, which is now the nearest overhead resistance. The input and chart show no new European data release behind the move, so the shift is price-driven. The most likely explanation is positioning ahead of the 20:00 Trump speech and the 21:00 FOMC minutes, with dip-buyers stepping back until the rate-path signal arrives. The bounce off the low is also modest, with a single green candle against a sequence of lower highs since the overnight spike to $4,184. The $4,120 floor was the invalidation level in the morning note, so the bullish case is now suspended rather than merely delayed.
Updated Levels
- Current price: $4,118
- Bias now: Changed to Neutral. The break below $4,120 invalidated the bullish bias, and price stays under pressure while it trades below $4,125.
- Updated support: $4,113 → $4,110 → $4,103
- Updated resistance: $4,125 → $4,135 → $4,141–$4,144
- London session target: $4,125 (a retest of the mid-band, conditional on $4,113 holding)
Scenarios Into the NY Handoff
Bull: A 15-minute close above $4,125 → $4,135, with the $4,141–$4,144 supply zone as the next barrier. Bear: A failure to hold $4,113 → $4,103, the level of the earlier-week wick low.
Chart Analysis
On the 15-minute chart, gold trades at $4,118.18 after a stair-step decline from the $4,153 area, with a series of lower highs and lower lows that keeps the intraday trend pointed down. The session low printed near $4,110, below the lower Golden Compass band at $4,113.44, and the long wick suggests dip-buyers stepped in at that level. Price now sits at the fast moving average at $4,118.85, below the mid-band at $4,124.74 and well below the 200 SMA at $4,149.39, which is sloping lower and confirms the bearish short-term structure. A supply zone sits at $4,123–$4,126, followed by wider zones at $4,141–$4,144, $4,150–$4,153 and $4,166–$4,171. The expanding lower band and the lack of any reclaimed moving average show the bounce is a retest, not yet a reversal. The projected path is a test of $4,125, and a rejection there would send price back toward $4,113 and potentially $4,103. These readings confirm the input price of $4,118. The $4,113 level matches the lower band, though the actual low on the chart reached roughly $4,110.
New York Session Update
Price Check
Gold trades near $4,098, about $38 below the $4,136 level of Gold Compass Daily’s morning analysis. The morning bias failed completely: the $4,134 and $4,120 floors both broke, and price printed a new session low near $4,066 in the late London hours.
What Changed
Gold Compass Daily’s London update set $4,125 as the retest target, and price reached the $4,122 area before sellers rejected it. Roughly $45 then came off in a handful of 15-minute candles, with the heaviest candle sliding from the $4,122 zone to the mid-$4,070s, and the wick extended to about $4,066. The day’s calendar lists no scheduled release at that time, so the move reads as a positioning flush rather than a data reaction, with no confirmed catalyst. Price then recovered about $30 in the next hour, which suggests dip-buyers absorbed the forced selling at the low. The recovery has so far not reclaimed any moving average of consequence, so the damage to the structure remains. The key U.S. events are still ahead: crude oil inventories at 17:30, the Trump speech at 20:00, the 10-year auction at 20:01 and the FOMC minutes at 21:00.
Updated Levels
- Current price: $4,098
- Bias now: Changed to Bearish below $4,114. The break of the $4,120 floor and the new low at $4,066 confirm sellers hold control, and the bounce stays corrective until $4,114 is reclaimed.
- Updated support: $4,088 → $4,075 → $4,066
- Updated resistance: $4,106 → $4,114 → $4,122
- NY session target: $4,106 (a retest of the mid-band, conditional on $4,088 holding)
Scenarios Into the Close
Bull: A 15-minute close above $4,106 → $4,114, with $4,122 as the level that would restore a neutral bias. Bear: A break below $4,088 → $4,075, then a retest of the $4,066 low.
Chart Analysis
On the 15-minute chart, gold trades at $4,098.49 after a bounce from the $4,066 low, within a broader downtrend of lower highs since the overnight spike to $4,184. The flush candle at the 15:15 mark is the dominant feature: it cut through the lower band and left a V-shaped recovery behind it, with a small gap-like imbalance between $4,075 and $4,105 where little trading occurred. Price sits on the fast moving average at $4,096.78, below the mid-band at $4,105.73, the upper band at $4,122.29 and the 200 SMA at $4,140.89, which keeps sloping lower. The lower band at $4,087.76 is the first support, backed by the $4,075 area and the $4,066 low. Overhead, the horizontal line at $4,114 and the supply zone at $4,122–$4,125 are the key barriers, followed by $4,141–$4,144 and $4,150–$4,153. The projected path is a retest of the $4,106 mid-band, and a rejection there would send price back toward $4,088 and the $4,075 area. These readings adjust the input price of $4,097: the chart shows a last price of $4,098.49, and the levels above use the chart.
New York Close & Asian Session Outlook
Price Check
Gold trades at $4,111, about $25 below the $4,136 level of Gold Compass Daily’s morning analysis, which projected a hold of the $4,134 and $4,120 floors. The hold thesis failed during the London session, and the market has since stabilised in a range well above the $4,066 low.
What Changed
Gold Compass Daily’s New York update flagged $4,106 as the first recovery target and $4,114 as the line that would end the bearish bias. Price cleared both: gold climbed to about $4,126 around the time of the Trump speech and the 10-year auction, recovering roughly $60 from the session low. Sellers rejected that advance at the supply zone and the 200-period SMA, and price then drifted back into a tight consolidation between $4,100 and $4,126. The chart shows no breakout in either direction after the FOMC minutes at 21:00, so the release did not produce a decisive move, and no confirmed catalyst is identified for the late-session drift. The partial gap left by the afternoon flush is now largely filled, which removes the main structural imbalance on the chart. Gold ends the U.S. session with a neutral structure, not a repaired trend.
Updated Levels
- Current price: $4,111
- Bias now: Changed from Bearish to Neutral inside the $4,100–$4,123 range. The recovery from $4,066 and the failure to make new lows since the minutes have stabilised price, but trade below the 200 SMA keeps the upside capped.
- Updated support: $4,100 → $4,094 → $4,088
- Updated resistance: $4,123 → $4,141–$4,144 → $4,150–$4,153
- Tomorrow sessions target: $4,123 (a retest of the 200 SMA and upper band, conditional on $4,100 holding)
Scenarios Into the Asian Session
Bull: A 15-minute close above $4,123 → $4,141–$4,144, where the next supply zone sits. Bear: A break below $4,100 → $4,088, then a retest of the $4,066 low.
Chart Analysis
On the 15-minute chart, gold trades at $4,111.33 inside a range between $4,100 and $4,126, following a V-shaped recovery from the $4,066 low. The broader trend since the overnight spike to $4,184 remains lower, but the intraday structure has flattened into sideways consolidation. Price sits just above the fast moving average at $4,108.82 and the mid-band at $4,108.62, which have converged and turned flat, a sign of balanced momentum. The 200 SMA at $4,122.57 is sloping lower and coincides with the upper band at $4,123.30 and the supply zone at $4,122–$4,127, which together form the key overhead barrier. The lower band at $4,093.91 and the recent swing lows near $4,100 and $4,088 mark the range floor, with the $4,066 low as the deeper reference. Wider supply sits at $4,140–$4,144 and $4,150–$4,153. The projected path is continued range trade into the Asian session, with a rejection at $4,123 sending price back toward $4,100 and a close above it opening $4,141. These readings confirm the input price of $4,111.
Analysis based on the XAU/USD 15-minute chart as of October 7, 2026, 08:42 (UTC+3). This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.