Gold Week Ahead: Oct 5-9 — FOMC Minutes Test $4,120 Floor

Weekly Thesis

Gold enters the week of October 5-9 at $4,140 — the defining theme is whether the $4,110-$4,120 support shelf can absorb another test while Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and a heavy run of US Treasury auctions set the direction for real yields, with the weekly bias Cautiously Bearish below $4,175.

Gold Compass Daily reports that last week ended with a failed rally. XAU/USD pushed to roughly $4,228 on Friday, stalled inside the $4,220-$4,250 supply zone, and gave back almost the entire move within hours. A market that sells its own breakout attempt this close to major support is telling traders that rallies remain sellable until the minutes arrive.

Key Levels for the Week

• Weekly bias: Cautiously Bearish below $4,175 (the zone where the 4-hour moving averages converge); Neutral between $4,175 and $4,220; Bullish only on a sustained close above $4,250
• Key support: $4,120 → $4,100
• Key resistance: $4,175 → $4,220 → $4,250
• Weekly bull target: $4,285 (conditional on softer FOMC minutes and a weak ISM Services print); extension to $4,315 if the $4,250 ceiling breaks on a closing basis
• Weekly bear risk: $4,050 (conditional on hawkish FOMC minutes and firm Treasury auction demand pushing yields higher)
• The floor: $4,100 — a break below it means the last charted demand area has failed, and price enters open space with no visible structure until the $4,050 and $4,035 area

The Week’s Defining Event

The minutes of the latest FOMC meeting, due Wednesday, October 7 at 18:00 UTC, are the single data point most likely to decide gold’s weekly direction. Last week’s hub framed the market around the Fed rate-hike question, and the minutes are the first detailed record of how deeply the committee discussed tightening, how many members wanted more, and what conditions would prompt action. Gold has no yield, so every additional signal that policy stays restrictive raises the opportunity cost of holding it. The timing matters as much as the content: the minutes land alongside the 10-year Treasury auction at 17:01 UTC, which previously cleared at a 4.83% yield. A hawkish record combined with weak auction demand would push yields higher into the same window and test the $4,100 floor directly. A record that shows division, or one that leans toward patience, would take pressure off the shelf and give gold room to retrace toward the $4,220 zone. Monday’s ISM Services PMI and Friday’s University of Michigan inflation expectations bracket the minutes and can either reinforce or undercut whatever the document signals.

Macro Context

Technically, gold finished last week in a descending structure on the 4-hour chart. The sequence of lower highs is clear: the peak near $4,315 in mid-September gave way to a lower high around $4,300 on September 25, and then to the $4,228 rejection on October 2. The sell-off on September 28 was the decisive leg, dropping price from the $4,230 area into the $4,110-$4,120 shelf, where buyers stepped in on September 28-29. The bounce that followed carried to $4,220 on September 30, retraced, and then failed again on Friday. Gold Compass Daily reports that the shelf has now been tested twice in six sessions, and each repeat test of a support level statistically weakens it. For continuity, the prior week’s setup is covered in the Gold Week Ahead: Sep 28-Oct 2 hub on NFP and the Fed rate-hike test, which flagged the same $4,120 support and $4,220 resistance that defined last week’s range.

The moving averages confirm the cautious reading. The fast and medium averages sit at $4,166 and $4,175 and both slope downward, with price below them, which makes that pair the first obstacle for any recovery. The longer-term average near $4,265 is falling and sits above the supply zone, so even a successful break of $4,250 would meet dynamic resistance within about $15 of the next test. The Bollinger Band lower boundary near $4,100 aligns with the floor level, which means a close below $4,100 would also register as a volatility expansion signal. Friday’s bearish engulfing-style candle from $4,228 down toward $4,125 is the most important single bar on the chart, because it rejected the supply zone with force and left the week’s close near the low end of the range.

On the macro side, three forces share the stage. First, yields: the Treasury calendar this week includes a 10-year auction (previous yield 4.83%) on Wednesday and a 30-year auction (previous yield 5.31%) on Thursday. Long-end yields at those levels give cash and bonds a competitive return against non-yielding bullion, so any tail in either auction is a direct negative for gold. Second, the dollar: US data this week skews toward activity and sentiment rather than payrolls, and an ISM Services print above the 55.1 forecast would reinforce a resilient-economy narrative that supports both the dollar and the case for restrictive policy. Third, central bank communication: the Fed speaker slate is dense, with Bowman on Tuesday, Musalem on Thursday and Collins on Friday, and the Bank of England has four MPC members scheduled on Thursday alone, which can move sterling and, through the dollar, gold. The Bank of Japan’s Governor Ueda speaks Tuesday, which matters for yen-driven dollar swings. Chinese markets are closed all week for the Golden Week bank holiday, and the absence of Chinese physical buying and onshore arbitrage typically thins Asian-session liquidity, which makes early-week gaps and stop runs more likely.

Daily Event Calendar

All times are UTC. Forecasts are shown where published; events with no forecast are scheduled speeches and meetings.

Monday, October 5

• Monday, Oct 5 — 07:45 UTC — German Bundesbank President Nagel speaks (no forecast): hawkish ECB rhetoric lifts the euro against the dollar and takes some pressure off gold through DXY.
• Monday, Oct 5 — 08:00 UTC — Eurozone Final Services PMI (53.0): the final reading sets the early-session tone for the euro; a downside miss strengthens the dollar and weighs on gold.
• Monday, Oct 5 — 08:30 UTC — UK Final Services PMI (51.7): a deviation from the flash estimate moves sterling and feeds into the dollar index.
• Monday, Oct 5 — 13:45 UTC — US Final Services PMI (58.7): the revision sets expectations ahead of the ISM release 15 minutes later.
• Monday, Oct 5 — 14:00 UTC — US ISM Services PMI (55.1, previous 55.4): the first major US activity print of the week; a reading above forecast supports yields and the dollar and puts the $4,120 shelf under immediate pressure, while a miss gives gold its best opening for a bounce toward $4,175.

Tuesday, October 6

• Tuesday, Oct 6 — 06:35 UTC — Japan 10-year bond auction (previous 3.00%, bid-to-cover 3.3): weak demand lifts global yields and spills into dollar-yen and gold.
• Tuesday, Oct 6 — 06:35 UTC — BOJ Governor Ueda speaks (no forecast): any shift in tone on policy normalisation moves the yen and the broader dollar.
• Tuesday, Oct 6 — 09:00 UTC — Eurozone Retail Sales m/m (0.3%, previous -0.6%): a rebound supports the euro and trims dollar strength.
• Tuesday, Oct 6 — 12:30 UTC — US Trade Balance (-95.2B, previous -88.6B): a wider deficit is dollar-negative at the margin and mildly supportive for gold.
• Tuesday, Oct 6 — 14:45 UTC — FOMC member Bowman speaks (no forecast): the first Fed voice of the week ahead of the minutes; any signal on further tightening feeds directly into rate expectations.

Wednesday, October 7

• Wednesday, Oct 7 — 06:00 UTC — German Industrial Production m/m (0.5%, previous -1.1%): a strong print supports the euro and the case for a firmer ECB stance, which weakens the dollar.
• Wednesday, Oct 7 — 17:01 UTC — US 10-year Treasury auction (previous 4.83%, bid-to-cover 2.7): a tail or weak bid-to-cover lifts yields and pressures gold into the minutes.
• Wednesday, Oct 7 — 18:00 UTC — FOMC Meeting Minutes (no forecast): the week’s defining event; the wording on tightening conditions and the degree of committee division sets the path for real yields and for the $4,100 floor.

Thursday, October 8

• Thursday, Oct 8 — 11:30 UTC — ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (no forecast): signals on the euro-area rate path move the euro and the dollar index.
• Thursday, Oct 8 — 09:15 to 13:00 UTC — Bank of England MPC members Greene, Pill and Lombardelli speak (no forecast): hawkish or dovish tones from the MPC shift sterling and, through DXY, gold.
• Thursday, Oct 8 — 12:30 UTC — US Unemployment Claims (200K, previous 197K): a rise toward or above forecast hints at labor softening and favors gold; a reading below 197K reinforces dollar strength.
• Thursday, Oct 8 — 17:01 UTC — US 30-year Treasury auction (previous 5.31%, bid-to-cover 2.6): the longest-dated supply of the week; weak demand lifts long-end yields and pressures gold.
• Thursday, Oct 8 — 17:40 UTC — FOMC member Musalem speaks (no forecast): a post-minutes interpretation of Fed intent from a voter-level speaker that either confirms or softens the Wednesday message.

Friday, October 9

• Friday, Oct 9 — 12:30 UTC — Canada Employment Change (9.0K, previous -41.7K) and Unemployment Rate (6.5%, previous 6.4%): a strong report lifts the Canadian dollar and moves the broader North American currency complex against the greenback.
• Friday, Oct 9 — 14:00 UTC — US Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (47.6, previous 48.1) and Inflation Expectations (previous 4.6%): rising inflation expectations strengthen the hawkish policy case and weigh on gold; a drop in expectations supports a weekend squaring of shorts.
• Friday, Oct 9 — 20:00 UTC — FOMC member Collins speaks (no forecast): the final Fed communication of the week arrives after the main liquidity window and can shape the weekly close.

Weekly Bull / Bear Scenarios

Bull case: ISM Services misses the 55.1 forecast on Monday, the US 10-year auction clears at or below the previous 4.83% yield with healthy demand, and the FOMC minutes show a committee divided over further tightening. Gold holds the $4,110-$4,120 shelf, reclaims the $4,166-$4,175 moving average cluster by midweek, and extends into the $4,220-$4,250 zone. A Thursday jobless claims print at or above 200K and a softer inflation expectations reading from Michigan on Friday would add fuel. A closing break above $4,250 opens the $4,285 target, with $4,315 as an extension and the downward-sloping long-term average near $4,265 as the first dynamic hurdle. Weekly price target: $4,285.

Bear case: ISM Services beats the forecast, the 10-year auction tails, and the FOMC minutes reveal a committee leaning toward tighter policy with limited dissent. Gold fails at the $4,166-$4,175 moving averages early in the week, retests $4,120 before the minutes, and breaks the $4,100 floor after them. A weak 30-year auction on Thursday and a rise in the Michigan inflation expectations on Friday would extend the move. With no charted demand below $4,100, the path of least resistance runs toward the $4,050 and $4,035 area. Weekly downside risk: $4,050.

The base case sits between the two: a rally attempt into $4,166-$4,175 early in the week that stalls, a decisive move around Wednesday’s minutes, and a weekly close determined by whether the $4,100-$4,120 shelf survives its third test.

This Week’s Daily Analysis

• Monday — ISM Services PMI (forecast 55.1) and the US Final Services PMI open the week; gold’s first test is whether the $4,120 shelf holds against a dollar bid while Chinese markets stay closed for the holiday.
• Tuesday — Fed’s Bowman and BOJ Governor Ueda speak and the US trade balance is released; the market positions for the FOMC minutes with the $4,166-$4,175 moving average cluster as the level to watch.
• Wednesday — FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC follow the 10-year Treasury auction at 17:01 UTC; the combined yield reaction decides whether $4,100 holds.
• Thursday — US jobless claims, the 30-year Treasury auction and Fed’s Musalem arrive, alongside four Bank of England speakers and the ECB meeting accounts; long-end yields drive the day.
• Friday — Canada’s jobs report, Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations, and Fed’s Collins close the week; the weekly close against $4,100 and $4,175 sets the tone for the following week.

Analysis based on the XAU/USD 4-hour chart as of October 4, 2026, 22:58 UTC+3. This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.