Gold trades cautiously bullish at $4,193 — a 50-dollar rebound from the overnight low at $4,151 has run into the $4,197–$4,203 supply zone, and a Fed speaker cluster today decides whether it breaks or retraces. The preferred path is a pullback toward the 200 SMA at $4,172.8 before the next attempt higher, which keeps the bias buy-the-dip below resistance and neutral inside it.
Key Levels
- Bias: Cautiously Bullish above $4,167
- Support: $4,173 → $4,168 → $4,155
- Resistance: $4,197–$4,203 → $4,217 → $4,225
- Session target: $4,217 (conditional on a 15-minute close above $4,203 after Waller)
- Invalidation: Below $4,167 = the 200 SMA bounce has failed and $4,150–$4,155 comes back into play
Catalyst of the Day: Waller Speaks at 10:45 (UTC+3)
Three Fed officials speak today — Waller, Barkin and Collins — and Waller comes first, with gold pressed against resistance. Gold is a rate-expectations asset, so any shift in how the Fed describes the labor market or the inflation path moves real yields directly, and real yields drive the metal. Comments that lean toward easing would give buyers the push needed to clear $4,203, while a firm tone on inflation would likely send price back to the 200 SMA. Gold Compass Daily will watch the 10:45 (UTC+3) remarks for the language on labor-market softness and the pace of policy adjustment, and for the reaction at $4,203.
Fundamental Context
Rate-path headlines are the dominant driver today because the data calendar is thin. The US session brings the NFIB Small Business Index at 13:00 (forecast 98.1, previous 98.7) and Existing Home Sales at 17:00 (forecast 3.95M, previous 3.98M). Readings at or below forecast would reinforce the slowing-growth narrative, which pulls yields lower and supports non-yielding gold. A beat on either would lift yields and put pressure on the $4,173 support.
Overseas data tilted mildly gold-friendly. Japanese PPI printed 6.8% y/y against a 7.6% forecast, easing pipeline inflation pressure and reducing the case for aggressive tightening by the Bank of Japan. Australian NAB Business Confidence fell to -13 from -9, another sign of cooling global demand. German final CPI was unchanged at 0.6% m/m, in line with forecast, so it offered no new reason to reprice European rates.
The IMF meetings continue today, adding headline risk around global growth and policy coordination. Volume has been thin on the chart, so a single sharp headline can extend a move in either direction. Yesterday’s analysis, XAU/USD Gold 4184: Bulls Defend 4165 on Thin Volume, flagged $4,165 as the line buyers had to hold. Price dipped below it overnight, to $4,151, and recovered quickly. The week’s larger setup, including the US CPI test of $4,200, is mapped in the weekly hub: Gold Week Ahead, Oct 12–16.
Chart Analysis
On the 15-minute chart, gold reversed from $4,151 at 04:30 and climbed through the 200 SMA ($4,172.8) around 05:30, a V-shaped recovery that took price from the lower support band to the underside of the $4,197–$4,203 supply zone. The candle at the $4,201 high closed with a long upper wick, which shows sellers defending the zone, and price has since settled at $4,193 on the short-term averages at $4,191 and $4,185. Those averages now slope upward and sit below price, which keeps the short-term trend up. The 200 SMA is flat after a long decline and sits on top of the $4,168–$4,174 support zone, so the average and the zone overlap in one area. The fast move left almost no overlapping candles between $4,175 and $4,185, a structural imbalance that often draws price back for a retest, and the thin volume on the rally adds to that case. This confirms the $4,200 resistance reading and the expectation of a bounce from the 200 SMA. The projected path is a rejection near $4,197–$4,203, a pullback into $4,173–$4,168, and a second attempt on resistance if that zone holds.
Bull / Bear Scenarios
Bull trigger: a pullback that holds $4,168–$4,174 with a bullish 15-minute close back above the 200 SMA, or a 15-minute close above $4,203 after Waller → $4,217 first, then $4,225.
Bear trigger: a 15-minute close below $4,167 on a hawkish Fed tone or a strong US data beat → $4,155 first, then $4,144, where the next support band sits.
Events Ahead
- Tue 10:45 — FOMC Member Waller speaks (no forecast): the day’s priority, a direct read on the rate path for gold.
- Tue 13:00 — NFIB Small Business Index (98.1): weaker sentiment supports the growth-scare bid for gold.
- Tue 15:15 — ADP Weekly Employment Change (previous 23.8K): a fast labor-market read that moves yields.
- Tue 17:00 — Existing Home Sales (3.95M): a miss adds to the slowing-growth case.
- Tue, all day — IMF Meetings, day 2: headline risk on global growth.
- Tue 20:00 — FOMC Member Barkin speaks: a second Fed voice that can reinforce or soften Waller’s message.
- Tue 23:00 — FOMC Member Collins speaks: late-session rate-path risk before the Asian open.
- Later this week — US CPI, the main test for $4,200; see the weekly hub for timing and forecasts.
All times are UTC+3. The action plan is simple: watch the $4,173–$4,168 zone on any pullback after Waller for a buy setup toward $4,203, and stand aside if price closes below $4,167.
New York Session Update
Gold trades at $4,187, and the morning thesis held. Gold Compass Daily’s morning analysis projected a rejection in the $4,197–$4,203 zone and a pullback toward the 200 SMA, and both happened. The Cautiously Bullish bias stays in place.
The session high stopped near $4,201, and price did not clear $4,203 after Waller’s 10:45 (UTC+3) remarks. Gold then drifted lower through the afternoon and tested the 200 SMA zone just before the New York open. The 16:15 candle wicked down to about $4,173, the top of the $4,168–$4,173 support zone, and buyers pushed price back to $4,189 as New York opened. This confirms the pullback-and-bounce path flagged in the morning piece. Three events remain: Existing Home Sales at 17:00 (forecast 3.95M), and Barkin at 20:00 and Collins at 23:00, which add rate-path headline risk into the close.
Updated Levels
- Current price: $4,187
- Bias now: Cautiously Bullish, unchanged. The 200 SMA held on the test, and the bias stays valid above $4,167.
- Updated support: $4,178 (200 SMA) → $4,173–$4,168 → $4,151
- Updated resistance: $4,197–$4,201 → $4,203–$4,207
- NY session target: $4,201, a retest of the morning high
Scenarios Into the Close
Bull: A 15-minute close above $4,189 with the 200 SMA still intact → $4,197–$4,201, and a break above $4,203 opens $4,207. Bear: A 15-minute close below $4,167 → $4,151, where the overnight low sits.
Chart Analysis
On the 15-minute chart, gold trades at $4,186.8, up roughly $14 from the 16:15 low and in a tightening range between $4,173 and $4,201 since the morning impulse. Highs have stepped lower, from $4,201 to about $4,196 at midday and about $4,191 this afternoon, while lows have held above the $4,151 overnight trough. This compression sits just under the $4,197–$4,201 supply zone, and a second red zone at $4,203–$4,207 stands above it. The short-term averages at $4,184.4 and $4,184.7 have converged and flattened under price, which marks a pause rather than a trend. The 200 SMA has risen to $4,177.7, and the afternoon wick pierced it by about $5 before the buyers’ close above it, which reads as a bullish rejection at the support zone. The large green candle that opened the New York session came with modest volume of 3.46K, so the bounce still needs follow-through. The projected path is a rotation back toward $4,197–$4,201. This confirms the 200 SMA bounce expected in the morning and adjusts the levels to $4,178 as first support and $4,201 as the session target. A break below $4,167 would invalidate the setup.
New York Close & Asian Session Outlook
Gold trades at $4,161, below the $4,167 invalidation level set in the morning analysis, and the Cautiously Bullish bias has failed. Gold Compass Daily’s morning analysis expected buyers to defend the 200 SMA, and that bounce held until the New York open before it lost control.
The afternoon bounce from $4,173 stalled near $4,190 and reversed. Price fell below the 200 SMA and through $4,167, then dropped to a low near $4,146 at about 21:00 UTC+3, a decline of roughly $43 from the afternoon peak. That low undercut the $4,151 overnight trough, which the morning analysis had named as the bear target, and the bear scenario was fully met. Barkin has now spoken and Collins follows at 23:00, so rate-path headline risk remains open into the Asian session. Since the $4,146 low, price has recovered about $15 on a quiet, low-conviction bounce.
Updated Levels
- Current price: $4,161
- Bias now: Neutral, downgraded from Cautiously Bullish. The 200 SMA and $4,167 both gave way, and the buy-the-dip setup is suspended until price reclaims $4,175.
- Updated support: $4,152 → $4,146 → $4,140
- Updated resistance: $4,168–$4,173 → $4,175 (200 SMA) → $4,196–$4,200
- Tomorrow’s sessions target: $4,173, a retest of the broken support zone, conditional on $4,146 holding
Scenarios Into the Asian Session
Bull: Price holds $4,146–$4,152 and closes above $4,168 on the 15-minute chart → $4,175, then $4,190 if the 200 SMA is reclaimed. Bear: A 15-minute close below $4,146 → $4,140, then $4,135.
Chart Analysis
On the 15-minute chart, gold trades at $4,161.6 after a V-shaped rebound from $4,146, but the broader trend since the $4,201 high is down, with lower highs at $4,190 and $4,189 and a clear break below the prior range. The $4,146–$4,152 green support zone caught the sell-off and produced the bounce. The former support at $4,168–$4,173 now acts as resistance, and the 200 SMA has turned down to $4,175.2 and sits above price, which is a bearish signal. The short-term averages at $4,162.0 and $4,162.8 are flat and price is hugging them, so the rebound has no momentum yet. The latest candle printed on very light volume (147), which suggests the recovery lacks conviction. The fast decline left almost no overlapping candles between $4,172 and $4,152, an imbalance that makes the $4,168–$4,173 zone a likely ceiling for any bounce. The projected path is consolidation between $4,146 and $4,168 in Asia, with a rejection at $4,168–$4,173 resuming the move toward $4,146. This adjusts the morning levels: the $4,167 invalidation was triggered and $4,146–$4,152 is now the zone that decides the next leg.
Analysis based on the XAU/USD 15-minute chart as of October 13, 2026, 09:06 UTC+3. This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.