Gold trades cautiously bullish at $4,643 in early European trade on Monday, pulling back from an intraday high above $4,680 as markets hold their positions ahead of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s scheduled remarks at 1:00 PM ET. The broader trend remains intact — Friday’s rally toward $4,571 extended into the Asian session overnight — but the short-term structure is now searching for support, and the price action around Bessent’s speech will set the tone for the week.
For the full weekly macro picture and event calendar, see Gold Compass Daily’s Week Ahead: Aug 24–28 – Jackson Hole and All-Time Highs.
Key Levels
- Bias: Bullish above $4,637 (short-term fast MA / orange MA support)
- Support: $4,637 (orange MA, 50-period) → $4,614–$4,612 (green demand zone)
- Resistance: $4,650–$4,655 (prior session high, red dotted reference) → $4,680 (intraday high) → $4,700+ (psychological / extension target)
- Session target: $4,665–$4,680 (conditional on Bessent delivering a dollar-negative or rate-cut-supportive tone)
- Invalidation: A sustained break below $4,612 shifts bias to neutral and opens a re-test of Friday’s breakout zone near $4,571
Catalyst of the Day: Bessent at 1:00 PM ET
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent delivers public remarks at 1:00 PM ET — the only scheduled USD-tier-1 catalyst on Monday’s calendar. As a currency and fixed-income specialist by background, Bessent’s public commentary on the U.S. fiscal trajectory, trade policy, or the dollar’s reserve status carries direct weight for gold. Any language that widens the projected U.S. deficit, signals continued tolerance for a weaker dollar, or questions the pace of Fed normalization is historically positive for XAU/USD. Conversely, if Bessent reinforces the administration’s “strong growth, non-inflationary economy” narrative — particularly in the context of the One Big Beautiful Bill taking effect — the dollar could find short-term support and gold may extend its pullback. Watch for any commentary on tariff negotiations or the U.S. fiscal position; those are the two levers most likely to move gold into the NY session open.
Fundamental Context
Gold’s climb to multi-year highs reflects a structural deterioration in real U.S. yields relative to the pace of fiscal spending. The One Big Beautiful Bill, now law, adds materially to the deficit profile over the next decade. For gold, this matters because sovereign debt expansion at current yield levels compresses the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets — every credible projection of wider deficits is a fundamental tailwind for XAU/USD. That dynamic is not temporary. It has driven institutional price target upgrades from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley through 2026, and it underpins the regime of higher gold prices that has carried the metal from sub-$3,000 earlier this year to the current $4,600 handle.
The RBA’s monetary policy meeting minutes, due 8:30 PM AEST tonight, are a secondary factor. An increasingly dovish Reserve Bank of Australia tends to support global risk appetite and reduces AUD-denominated selling pressure on gold — a marginal tailwind heading into Tuesday’s Asian session. Canadian corporate profits data (7:30 AM ET) is not a primary driver for gold today but may influence broader risk sentiment if it undershoots expectations materially. The primary macro anchor for the week remains Jackson Hole: any signal from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh or other speakers about the policy rate trajectory will reprice real yields rapidly, making Thursday and Friday the highest-volatility sessions of the week.
Chart Analysis (15-Minute, Aug 24, 09:29 UTC+3)
The 15-minute chart shows XAU/USD opening near the $4,602–$4,612 demand zone before buyers swept lows and drove an aggressive leg higher, peaking just above $4,680 in the 04:00–04:30 UTC+3 window. Since that high, price has consolidated and pulled back to the $4,635–$4,643 zone, now sitting on or just above the orange MA (approximately $4,637) with the faster green MA below at $4,614. Both moving averages are in bullish alignment — green above blue, orange between them — and price remains inside the upper half of the Bollinger Band envelope. The red dotted horizontal reference near $4,650–$4,655 is the first overhead level that capped the morning’s rally; a clean reclaim of that level on a 15-minute close would confirm bullish continuation. The green demand zone at $4,612–$4,614 is the structural floor: it held as support on multiple tests overnight and represents the line between a healthy pullback and a failed breakout. As long as price holds above $4,637 on the current candle sequence, the structure supports a re-test of the $4,680 session high. A breach of $4,612 on volume would be the first technical warning sign.
Bull and Bear Scenarios
Bull Trigger
Condition: Price reclaims and closes above $4,655 (red dotted reference) on the 15-minute chart, ideally during or immediately after Bessent’s 1:00 PM ET remarks.
Target: Re-test of $4,680 intraday high; extension to $4,700–$4,710 if momentum holds into the NY session close.
Bear Trigger
Condition: Price breaks and closes below $4,612 (green demand zone lower boundary) on a 15-minute candle with follow-through selling.
Target: $4,571 (Friday’s base); a failure of that level opens a move toward $4,540.
Events Ahead This Week
- Mon Aug 24, 7:30 AM ET — CAD Corporate Profits q/q: Secondary risk-sentiment gauge; only relevant to gold if a large miss triggers broad risk-off flows.
- Mon Aug 24, 1:00 PM ET — USD Treasury Sec. Bessent Speaks: Primary catalyst for today’s session. Dollar direction post-speech will define the NY open for gold.
- Mon Aug 24, 8:30 PM AEST — AUD RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Sets tone for Asian session Tuesday; a dovish tone supports gold’s overnight bid.
- Thu–Fri Aug 27–28 — Jackson Hole Symposium (Fed Chair Warsh expected): The defining event of the week. Any shift in the Fed’s rate outlook will move real yields and gold sharply. See the week-ahead hub for full scenario analysis.
Friday’s analysis: Gold Surges to $4,571 as PMI Data and Trump Speech Loom — Gold Compass Daily’s prior session coverage providing the breakout context for today’s continuation attempt.
London Session Update
Price Check
Gold is trading at $4,643.54 as of 14:06 UTC+3 — essentially unchanged from the morning print of $4,643.05, confirming that the bullish bias identified in Gold Compass Daily’s morning analysis has held: price defended the orange MA and has not broken the $4,622 demand zone floor despite a full London session of two-way price action.
What Changed
London trade produced neither a breakout nor a breakdown — price compressed into a tight range between $4,622 and $4,655 as European participants absorbed the overnight Asian rally without adding fresh directional conviction. The session’s low print near $4,610–$4,615 (pre-London, around 11:30 UTC+3) held at the green demand zone and was rejected cleanly, confirming that zone as active institutional support. No material European data releases shifted the macro picture during the London morning: DXY held steady and there were no surprise ECB comments or European CPI revisions to reprice the dollar-gold relationship. The session has been defined by consolidation rather than catalyst — price is coiling above converging moving averages ahead of the New York open and Bessent’s 1:00 PM ET remarks, which remain the primary scheduled event of the day.
Updated Levels
- Current price: $4,643.54
- Bias now: Bullish — unchanged; demand zone held, MAs in bullish alignment
- Updated support: $4,641–$4,643 (orange/green MA cluster) → $4,622–$4,624 (green demand zone, London session low)
- Updated resistance: $4,651–$4,655 (red zone / Bollinger upper band ceiling) → $4,661.82 (all-time high, red label)
- London session target: $4,655 reclaim ahead of NY open; all-time high retest at $4,661.82 on a Bessent-driven breakout
Scenarios into the NY Handoff
Bull: Price holds above $4,641 through the NY open and Bessent’s tone is dollar-neutral or dollar-negative → breakout above $4,655 targets the all-time high at $4,661.82 and extension to $4,680.
Bear: Bessent reinforces fiscal discipline or a strong-dollar narrative → breakdown below $4,622 demand zone opens a re-test of Friday’s base near $4,571.
Chart Analysis
The 15-minute chart as of 14:06 UTC+3 shows XAU/USD in a well-defined consolidation pattern following the Asian session spike to ~$4,680. Since approximately 06:00 UTC+3, price has been ranging between the $4,622 demand zone (lower boundary, green shaded band) and the $4,651–$4,655 resistance cluster (upper boundary, red shaded zone), with the blue dotted pivot line at $4,643 acting as the intraday fulcrum. The green and orange moving averages have converged at $4,641–$4,643 and are now tracking flat beneath price — a classic compression signal ahead of a directional expansion. The slow blue MA continues to rise, confirming the structural uptrend remains intact. Bollinger Bands are visibly squeezing from both sides, with the upper band overhead near $4,655 and the all-time high reference at $4,661.82 just beyond that. The next 15-minute candle sequence into the NY open is the setup: a close above $4,655 on volume is the continuation trigger; a close below $4,622 on volume is the first structural warning. Until one of those prints, the range is live and the bias remains bullish by default.
New York Session Update
Price Check
Gold is trading at $4,664.64 as of 16:54 UTC+3 — up $21 from the London update print and through the all-time high of $4,661.82 that Gold Compass Daily’s morning analysis flagged as the bull trigger target. The morning buy bias has delivered.
What Changed
Treasury Secretary Bessent’s 1:00 PM ET remarks proved to be the directional catalyst the session was waiting for. The NY open triggered an immediate acceleration from the $4,640 consolidation range, with price clearing the $4,655 resistance cluster and the prior all-time high at $4,661.82 in a single impulsive leg, reaching a session high near $4,675 before pulling back to retest the breakout zone. The ATH is no longer resistance — it has flipped to support. The DXY softened into and following Bessent’s comments, providing the macro fuel for gold’s breakout. With the prior all-time high now behind it, XAU/USD is in price discovery territory and the next reference levels are extension-based rather than structural.
Updated Levels
- Current price: $4,664.64
- Bias now: Bullish — strengthened; ATH cleared and retested, MAs in full bullish alignment
- Updated support: $4,662 (green MA / blue dotted pivot, breakout-retest zone) → $4,655 (orange MA, former resistance now support) → $4,630–$4,631 (green demand zone)
- Updated resistance: $4,675 (session high) → $4,700 (psychological round number / extension target)
- NY session target: $4,675 retest → $4,700 on sustained bid into the close
Scenarios into the Close
Bull: Price holds above $4,662 on the breakout retest and reclaims $4,675 on a 15-minute close → $4,700 psychological target into the NY close.
Bear: Failure to hold $4,655 (orange MA) on a closing basis → reversion to $4,633–$4,630 demand zone and a potential false-breakout signal.
Chart Analysis
The 15-minute chart as of 16:54 UTC+3 shows a textbook breakout-and-retest structure unfolding in real time. After ranging between $4,622 and $4,655 through the entire London session, price broke decisively to the upside from approximately 14:30–15:00 UTC+3, clearing the $4,655 resistance cluster and the all-time high at $4,661.82 in a sustained rally that peaked near $4,675. Price has since pulled back to $4,662–$4,664, sitting directly on the green MA ($4,662.28) and just above the blue dotted pivot line — a classic retest of the breakout level before the next leg. The orange MA ($4,655.33) is rising sharply beneath, widening the gap between price and the slow blue MA ($4,633.94), which confirms the trend is accelerating rather than exhausting. The upper green shaded zone ($4,660–$4,665), which acted as resistance throughout the morning and London sessions, has now absorbed the retest as support — a structural confirmation of the breakout. Bollinger Bands have expanded to accommodate the move, with the upper band tracking toward $4,675–$4,680. As long as price closes 15-minute candles above $4,655, the path of least resistance is higher toward $4,700.
New York Close & Asian Session Outlook
NY Close
Gold closed the New York session at approximately $4,650 — bullish — confirming Gold Compass Daily’s morning buy thesis in full. The session produced an intraday high of $4,672 following Treasury Secretary Bessent’s remarks before a late-session pullback to $4,625 was absorbed and partially recovered into the close. The morning bias, the London update’s breakout call, and the NY session’s directional thesis all resolved on the correct side of the trade; gold continues to build higher within its broader uptrend, with the all-time high of $5,589.38 remaining the long-term bull target.
Updated Key Levels
- NY Close: ~$4,650
- Session high: ~$4,672 / Session low: ~$4,620
- Bias into Asian session: Cautiously bullish above $4,646 (green/orange MA cluster)
- Asian session support: $4,646–$4,648 (MA cluster) → $4,625 (green demand zone / BB lower band)
- Asian session resistance: $4,658–$4,662 (intraday resistance, red shaded) → $4,670–$4,672 (session high / red label)
Chart Read at Close
The 15-minute chart at 23:22 UTC+3 shows price sitting on the blue dotted pivot at $4,650, having recovered from the 21:00 UTC+3 low of $4,625 in a steady sequence of higher lows. The green MA ($4,646.50) and orange MA ($4,647.80) have re-converged directly beneath price — the same compression structure that preceded both the London and NY breakout legs earlier in the session. The slow blue MA ($4,644.60) continues to rise, keeping the structural trend intact. Bollinger Bands expanded aggressively during the NY rally and are now beginning to contract around the $4,625–$4,672 range, with price holding in the upper half — a sign of residual bullish pressure rather than distribution. The closing candle is small-bodied and bullish, reflecting indecision with a buyer lean. The red shaded resistance at $4,658–$4,662 is the immediate overhead ceiling; a reclaim of that zone on a 15-minute close is the continuation signal.
Asian Session Outlook
Asian session trade (00:00–09:00 UTC+3) is expected to be range-bound between $4,625 and $4,662, with the most probable behavior being a liquidity sweep of either the $4,646 MA cluster (to the downside) or the $4,662 resistance (to the upside) before London open. Given that price closed in the upper half of the day’s range after recovering from the 21:00 low, a sweep of the NY lows near $4,625 before a London continuation is a realistic scenario — Asian sessions following a strong NY rally frequently consolidate with a dip toward the prior breakout level before the next leg. The RBA monetary policy meeting minutes (due 08:30 AEST / approximately 01:30 UTC+3) are the only scheduled catalyst overnight; a dovish tone supports the Asian bid and reduces the probability of a deeper sweep.
Next Day Bull / Bear Scenarios
Bull trigger: Price reclaims and holds above $4,662 (intraday resistance) on a 15-minute close during London or NY open → $4,672 session high retest, then extension to $4,700.
Bear trigger: Failure to hold $4,625 (green demand zone) on a closing basis → reversion to $4,600 and a re-test of the broader breakout structure.
Tomorrow’s Key Events
- ~01:30 UTC+3 — AUD RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Dovish language supports Asian gold bid and reduces overnight selling pressure; hawkish surprise could briefly pressure XAU/USD.
- Jackson Hole (Thu–Fri) — Fed Chair Warsh expected: The week’s defining macro event for gold; any rate path signals will move real yields and reprice XAU/USD sharply in either direction. Full scenario analysis in the Gold Compass Daily Week Ahead hub.
Analysis based on the XAU/USD 15-minute chart as of August 24, 2026, 09:29 UTC+3. This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.