Gold Tests $4,993 Before a Potential Push Toward $5,130
Gold is under significant pressure to start the new week. XAU/USD has been in a steady downtrend since Thursday’s rejection near $5,175, and price is now trading around $5,026 — its lowest level in over a week. The 15-minute chart shows the selling is not done yet, but a meaningful support zone is close, and the setup points to a sharp recovery once price reaches it.
The projected path is clear: one more leg lower into the $4,993.987 green demand zone, a hold, and then a recovery toward $5,130 — the lower boundary of the pink resistance band that has been a recurring reference level throughout the past two weeks.
The Structure: Downtrend Intact, But Support Is Near
The 15-minute chart shows a well-defined downtrend from the March 12 highs. Each recovery attempt — there have been three visible on the chart — has been sold into, producing lower highs and confirming that sellers remain in control in the short term. The most recent bounce from the overnight low of $4,975 carried price back to $5,050 before rolling over again.
What is changing is the pace. The selling is becoming more laboured, the bounces are holding slightly longer, and price is approaching a zone where buyers have consistently stepped in. The green demand zone between $4,993.987 and $5,017.799 is that area — visible on the chart as the horizontal green band at the bottom of the range.
The cyan trendline on the projected move also flattens in that zone before turning sharply higher, which reinforces the read that this is where the directional shift is expected.
The Setup: Dip to $4,993, Then Rally to $5,130
The setup requires patience. Price needs to complete the move into the $4,993.987 area — buyers stepping in prematurely above that level have been punished all week. A clean test of the green zone, followed by a decisive reversal candle on the 15-minute chart, is the signal.
From that low, the recovery path runs through several resistance levels. The first is the pink zone near $5,058, which has acted as both support and resistance in recent sessions. Above that, the next pink band sits around $5,130 — the primary target for this setup. That level represents a roughly $136 move from the projected low, consistent with the prior swings visible on the chart.
Bullish Scenario
Price dips to $4,993.987, holds the green demand zone, and reverses. A recovery above $5,026 (current price) signals the low is in. The move then works through the $5,058 pink zone and targets the primary level at $5,130 — the lower boundary of the upper pink resistance band.
Bearish Scenario / Invalidation
A close below $4,966 invalidates the setup. That level sits below the entire green demand zone — losing it means the support that has held throughout this correction has finally failed, and the next reference is the $4,935–$4,914 area visible at the bottom of the chart. Above $4,966, the recovery scenario stays intact.
Key Levels at a Glance
- Dip Target / Entry Zone: $4,993.987 — green demand zone
- First Resistance: $5,058 — lower pink zone
- Primary Target: $5,130 — lower boundary of upper pink band
- Invalidation: Close below $4,966 — green zone fails entirely
- Bias: Bullish from $4,993 — invalidated below $4,966
Gold has had a difficult week. But difficult weeks often end with the sharpest reversals — and the $4,993 zone is where this one could turn. Watch for the hold. If it comes, $5,130 is back on the table before the week is out.
Analysis based on the XAU/USD 15-minute chart as of March 16, 2026, 08:39 UTC+2. This is technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Written by T. S. Gospodinov
T. S. Gospodinov is an Independent gold market analyst focused on liquidity structures and macro-driven price cycles.
