Gold has spent the better part of two days testing the same floor — and it has held every time. XAU/USD is trading around $5,012 on Tuesday morning, having bounced repeatedly from the $4,975–$4,993 demand zone that has absorbed selling pressure since the weekend. With a clutch of macroeconomic events on the calendar today, the technical picture is aligning with a potential move higher — but the road to $5,120 runs through several layers of resistance.
Multiple Tests, Same Support — The Floor Is Holding
The 15-minute chart tells a story of exhaustion. Sellers have pushed gold into the $4,975–$4,993 zone on at least three separate occasions since March 16, and each time buyers have stepped in decisively. The lows are not getting lower — a classic sign that the selling pressure is drying up at a structurally significant level.
The green demand band visible at the bottom of the chart, running from approximately $4,966 to $4,993, has now been tested and rejected multiple times. That kind of repeated defence typically precedes a more meaningful move in the opposite direction. Price is currently sitting just above $5,012, having pushed through the $5,021–$5,034 resistance zone in the early European session.
The projected path on the chart is a continuation of the current recovery, through the $5,058 pink resistance zone and on toward the $5,120 area — the lower boundary of the upper pink band that acted as support throughout the first half of March.
Today’s Macro Calendar Adds Complexity
Tuesday’s economic calendar introduces meaningful event risk for gold. The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 4.10% this morning — in line with expectations — and the accompanying press conference at 6:30am provided no major surprises. That outcome is broadly neutral for risk sentiment and does little to shift the directional bias for gold in the near term.
The more relevant event for XAU/USD comes at 12:00pm with the German ZEW Economic Sentiment reading. The prior print was 58.3 — a high reading that reflected optimism about the European economic outlook. The consensus estimate for today’s release is 39.0, a sharp decline. A reading that confirms deteriorating sentiment in Europe would typically weigh on the euro and add mild support to the dollar, which could create a brief headwind for gold. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected number could spark euro strength and provide an additional tailwind for the metals complex.
Later in the session, US ADP Weekly Employment Change at 2:15pm and Pending Home Sales at 4:00pm round out the calendar. Neither is a primary gold driver, but a materially weak ADP print would reinforce the narrative of a softening US labour market — historically a positive environment for gold.
The Technical Setup: Through $5,058, Then $5,120
The immediate challenge for bulls is the $5,058 pink resistance zone. That level has been both support and resistance multiple times over the past two weeks, and price needs to close above it convincingly to open the path to the primary target.
Above $5,058, the next resistance is the $5,120 area — the lower edge of the pink band that capped price throughout the March 10–12 period. A move there from current levels represents a roughly $108 recovery from the overnight lows, consistent with the prior bounce sequences visible on the chart.
Bullish Scenario
Price holds above $5,012, pushes through $5,058 on a closing basis, and extends toward the primary target at $5,120. Today’s ZEW miss (if confirmed) causes only a brief pullback that is absorbed above $4,993 before the move resumes.
Bearish Scenario / Invalidation
A close back below $4,993 invalidates the recovery setup. That would mean the demand zone that has held all week has finally broken, and the next meaningful support is the deeper green band near $4,966. A surprise hawkish tone from any of today’s Fed speakers — none are scheduled, but off-schedule commentary is always possible — combined with a strong ZEW print could create the conditions for that outcome.
Key Levels at a Glance
- Support / Demand Zone: $4,993 → $4,966 (green band)
- First Resistance: $5,058 — pink zone, needs a clean close above
- Primary Target: $5,120 — lower boundary of upper pink band
- Key Event Risk: German ZEW at 12:00pm, ADP at 2:15pm
- Invalidation: Close below $4,993 — demand zone fails
- Bias: Bullish above $4,993 — invalidated below that level
Gold has done the hard work. The support has held on multiple tests, the structure is improving, and the macro calendar — while eventful — does not present an obvious reason for a sustained move lower from these levels. The next few hours, particularly around the ZEW release, will be the test. If $5,058 gives way to the upside, $5,120 becomes the session target.
Analysis based on the XAU/USD 15-minute chart as of March 17, 2026, 08:38 UTC+2. Economic data sourced from the daily macro calendar. This is technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Written by T. S. Gospodinov
T. S. Gospodinov is an Independent gold market analyst focused on liquidity structures and macro-driven price cycles.
